Publication summary of W. Griscom et al., PNAS (full link here), September 5, 2017

Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 ยฐC; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify โ€œNatural Climate Solutionsโ€ (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands.

We find that the maximum potential of NCSโ€”when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservationโ€”is 23.8 petagrams of CO2ย equivalent (PgCO2e) yโˆ’1ย (95% CI 20.3โ€“37.4). This is โ‰ฅ30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e yโˆ’1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2ย pollution is โ‰ฅ100 USD MgCO2eโˆ’1ย by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2ย mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 ยฐC. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2โˆ’1.

Most NCS actionsโ€”if effectively implementedโ€”also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

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